Economic downturn & the effects on the horlogy industry?

Much has been said already about the global economic downturn affecting the US and now the rest of the world. So much in fact that it affects our daily thoughts in every aspect of our life. This impact is here to stay with us for unforeseen times thus affecting everything including many of ours horology acquisition and collecting habits. Now I will not go on about what/whom/where/why did it happen nor will I try and predict the future. All I will state is how I see it affecting me/us right not and how I see it developing.

There is definitely a correction from watch market valuation highs from the middle of the year especially evident in the vintage watch markets. The biggest change I see now (and for the future) is in the middle to low market where the effects are clearly evident. The middle to entry level consumers momentarily will see the sharpest decline due to lack of disposable income for luxury objects of desire. I say momentarily because as disposable income becomes available we will see the return en mass because the timepiece in today's digital age is not anymore just a time telling tool but rather the reflection of ones style, persona & emotional desires (very much like ones home, car, clothes, etc). On the other hand there is no abating in the high-end market with clear expansion in the very high-end due to unseciable demand in ever growing numbers of emerging markets new millionaires.

The positive thing of potential reduced demand for watches as a result of this is that finally the supply and manufacturing capabilities of the companies will catch up to true demand. Thus resulting in a move back to the equilibrium including both exuberant pricing increases of the past few years, increase in service and quality control of manufacturing, increase in true watchmaking talent pool & timely deliveries for the true aficionados that will stay in this horology game.

Another positive result evident already is sharp reduction of speculators and flippers which puts a smile on every true watch aficionado dial. In addition I foresee further consolidation in the horology industry with hopefully weeding out the overcrowded field of the weak, lemmings & the inconsequential that benefited from the past half decade of the horology renaissance. All in all as you can see not all news are that bad because once the economic fortunes bounce back (which eventually they undoubtedly will) the industry will emerge much more complete, efficient and stronger – of course this is just my humble opinion which just might be completely wrong.

First post in 2008 … what?

Well I have been quite busy wrapping things up left over from last year and dealing with all the challenges the New Year presents. This year I decided not to have many New Years resolutions as frankly unless one is really adamant about change they really never work out as planned. So firstly I will not be bullshitting myself or you for that matter with excuses like the one you just read in the first sentence. We all heard by now that much overused line of “excuses are like assholes as everyone has one!” so I will not be that lame and end up using it on myself. So what am I getting at?

Basically in the last few months I was just not motivated, simply too lazy to write something that I would not consider meaningful to post. Although I stated at the initiation of this blog I would write my daily thoughts, musings & interests about anything that currently makes me tick, well I just never actually followed up on it as I didn’t find it that interesting to be writing about. The reason was that when I wrote about these things they just sounded like ramblings and not something that I would be proud to publish. So this made me think am I being true to my blog mission statement? No excuses, it was decision time. The resolution is that from now I will not self edit this blog, not in regards to the content, writing style or any kind of suitability. So expect more posts, thoughts & opinions as often they come to me you’ll see it next here – promise.

My thoughts on Antiquorum Only Watch Auction Results

After having a chance to review and contemplate all the results from this week charity action some results stuck in my head resulting in some thought-provoking opinions. Certainly whenever there are charity auctions one can hardly be in position to “accurately predict” or “judge” achieved valuations as in the end they’re (in most cases) a very generous (and tax free) contributions with an outcome of an exclusive plaything to boot. With that said taking out of the account the splendid amount of money raised for the worth cause some inordinate results stick out for one reason or another.

Granted the star of the show Patek’s one off Nautilus 5712 was expected to reach the sky not only owing to the uniqueness of it being a sole titanium model ever made, but as well due to the current inordinate Nautilus/Patek model demand (with the aspect to current certain geographical supply shortages). Considering the Pateks ever present ultimate luxury timepiece cache, adding the exclusivity of such piece unique and Voilà we have a creation of worldwide appeal to many present bidders all resulting in an instant collector blockbuster. The price achieved (almost 600K Euro with fees) was indeed impressive, yet a bit shocking how steep especially when compared to some other rather underwhelming prices that were achieved for some quite outstanding pieces. Perfect example of such is GP’s ww.tc Perpetual Calendar Financial which was a steal and certainly a great bargain for the lucky bidder. I know that GP doesn’t have the same marketing clout of some of the big names in horology, but to score an outstanding one off complication timepiece for probably less then you could get similar regular series model from a retailer does seem shocking to me. Same can be said for the Frédérique Constant’s ”Heart Beat Zerodur”. I mean where else can one get for around 10K Euro a pink gold piece unique with moon-phase indicator containing innovative Zerodur balance and Silicium escape wheel. Even the next highest priced DeWitt and Jean-Michel Wilmotte “Incognito” creation and Richard Mille/Philippe Starck model make sense owing to their relative unique pairings that most likely will never be repeated or be close to compare to anything similar from the creators regular line up. As great as that might be then I notice the really fantastic Vacheron Constantine Malte Tourbillon featuring a carriage bridge in platinum (a first for VC) for almost 3rd of that price – a relative bargain of 130K. OK so I can understand the appeal of some special collaboration, but to have such disparity present here I am left here really puzzled. Especially when I see the 50K higher price for that IMO horrid Frank Muller Crazy Something creation – I mean aren’t we over this hoopla at this point. Then just when I was feeling a bit better I noticed a figging “pink quartzy” Swatch and the always horrible abomination from Zenith to make me think WTF is wrong with some of this bidding people? In the end after reviewing all I do calm down realizing that most watches realize 1.5 to 2.5 times their relative value for comparable series watches which makes a perfect sense at this point.
In the end I am smiling because the total of 2.7 million Euro raised is for medical Research on Duchene Muscular Dystrophy leaving me and my insignificant thoughts all flailing in the dust of big picture insignificance.